Performance — Prime70

baseline_v1 · 12031 matchs notés

Accuracy 1N2: 54.42%; vainqueur correct (hors No Prediction)

Brier Score: 0.625; erreur quadratique (0 = parfait)

Log Loss: 1.0396; pénalise la surconfiance

Calibration (ECE): 0.074217; écart annoncé vs observé

Score exact: 10.22%

Strong Pick accuracy: 66.76%; 370 Strong Picks

Évolution de la performance

Calibration chart

··· Calibration parfaite ● Fréquence observée

Distribution des résultats

3166Total

Corrects: 1725 (54%)
Incorrects: 1441 (46%)

Courbe de calibration

Carte cal_baseline_v1_20261109023031_flprl active · isotonic sur 12031 matchs · Brier 0.625015 → 0.612904 · ECE 0.074217 → 0.009773.

30–40%

44% obs. / 38% ann. (+6) · n=7358

40–50%

53% obs. / 44% ann. (+8) · n=3288

50–60%

67% obs. / 54% ann. (+13) · n=1134

60–70%

78% obs. / 64% ann. (+15) · n=213

70–80%

81% obs. / 73% ann. (+8) · n=37

80–90%

100% obs. / 82% ann. (+18) · n=1

Barre = fréquence observée · trait vertical = probabilité annoncée moyenne.

Performance par segment

Segment	n	Accuracy	Brier	Log Loss	Score exact	Strong Picks
n/a	10734	48.5%	0.630	1.046	10.3%	0
1.00–2.00	822	63.0%	0.545	0.928	8.6%	337 · 68.3%
2.00–2.50	357	44.0%	0.644	1.066	11.8%	33 · 51.5%
2.50–3.00	87	31.0%	0.674	1.107	10.3%	0
3.00–4.00	23	43.5%	0.661	1.093	8.7%	0
4.00–5.00	6	16.7%	0.723	1.188	16.7%	0
5.00+	2	0.0%	0.733	1.179	50.0%	0